Newmania: Damage Control

PERFECT ONE DAY -  ELECTION THE NEXT

Rumours are flying tonight that tomorrow, Queensland Premier Campbell Newman will call an election for as early as January 31^st. The rumour has caught everyone by surprise, but is it that surprising? There are compelling reasons why an early election would benefit the LNP government, and make it difficult for the Labor Opposition to steal victory, despite the recent Newspoll, which reported a two party preferred result of 50-50. 

The LNP government has been in pre-election mode for months, spending millions of dollars on government advertising. Transport Minister Scott Emerson further softened the ground over the weekend, commenting publicly on Campbell Newman’s future:

“I think that when we get to election day, they’ll have a very clear choice and that is between our government that is detailed and has a plan, a strong team, compared to Annastacia Palaszczuk, who’s got no plan except to bring back the people who’ve caused the mess, caused the debacles, caused the deficit in the first place,” he said.

When asked who would be leader if Mr Newman did not hold his seat, Mr Emerson said: “We’ve got a premier — he’ll be the Premier before the election, and the Premier after the  election.”

A state election in late January or early February would place the majority of the campaign within the summer holiday period. Right now, media coverage is dangerous for the LNP – the stories are about unpopular asset “leases”, tight polls, the likelihood of the Premier losing his seat of Ashgrove to Labor's Kate Jones, and the ongoing damage being inflicted by the federal Liberals.

Summer holidays is the perfect time in which to run a campaign against a backdrop of negative media coverage. It’s television and radio non-ratings period, and many traditional current affairs programmes are in recess, or their usual hosts are on leave. It’s a chicken-and-egg conundrum, yet for whatever reason, there are simply less people paying attention to news media, preferring to spend their summers in the pool, by the barbecue, engaged with traditional January sports carnival of the Magic Millions, the Australian Open tennis, and the ongoing cricket competitions. Now is the right time for the LNP to minimise coverage of these contextual issues.

It’s also the right time to minimise the number of new voters who enrol. School leavers and their peers tend to prefer Labor and the Greens to the conservative LNP. Minimising new voter registration reduces the number of likely Labor/Greens voters who can vote. It’s a smart, if cynical tactic, and hardly new. School leavers are still unsettled, not yet established in university or new jobs.

As the holiday season rolls on towards Australia Day on January 26, many Queensland families are likely to be away from home, some interstate. If the LNP feels it has lost support of families, it would benefit from a January campaign.

And there’s the Abbott Factor. The recent Victorian state election has proven that a conservative government can be tossed out after a single term, and comparisons are being drawn between Queensland and Victoria. Described as “toxic”, Tony Abbott was warned to steer clear of Victoria during the state campaign. The Prime Minister and his government are phenomenally unpopular, although less so in Queensland. As the federal conservative government continues to slide in the polls, more and more damage to state Liberal/LNP government is to be expected.

And finally, as ABC State Political Reporter Chris O’Brien has reported tonight, the LNP will be hoping to catch the Labor Opposition “on the hop”, unprepared for an election to be called this early. While Labor candidates have been announced, they probably weren’t expecting to face an election day this side of March.

Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk has little to work with: after two successful by-elections, she still only has ten members, and one, Desley Scott, is not standing for re-election. That gives Labor nine incumbents in the 89-seat government.

Having said that, there will be some former ALP ministers hoping to win seats back in this year's election, so logically, she should have a few more experienced parliamentarians than she has now.

The single positive factor working for the Newman government as we move into this summer campaign season is the devastating majority it carries from the 2012 election. In order to surrender government, the Labor team would need to pick up over close to 40 seats, depending on how many seats fall to minor parties and independents.

The swing calculated from current polling is at about 13%, which would see 38 seats change hands, given a steady swing across the state. . While polling is locked at 50-50, swings are rarely uniform. It’s not impossible to win though – Newman’s LNP government picked up 44 seats in the2012 election. 

The big question is whether, even in the face of rising unemployment, asset leases and the Abbott Factor, Annastacia Pazaszczuk is a strong enough leader to successfully challenge the Newman-lead incumbency. I’m not sure that she is.

The other election question Queenslanders are pondering tonight is whether the state’s P&C Clubs can get into gear quickly enough to mount respectable sausage sizzles at polling booths on January 31^st. Sausage Democracy depends on it!