Newmania: Leadership Void

Queenslanders are once again faced with the likelihood that the outcome of the election in Ashgrove may determine who the Premier of Queensland will be for the next three years. Ashgrove, held by Premier Campbell Newman with a moderate margin of 5.7%, has the choice of re-electing the unpopular leader, or returning to Labor’s Kate Jones, who held the seat prior to 2012.

While the contest is a rematch between Newman and Jones, the battleground is very different to the one we saw three years ago. Back then, Newman was leading the LNP from outside the parliament, where the LNP were the Opposition. Newman was largely an unknown quantity outside of Brisbane, where he had served as Lord Mayor with a high public profile, although had never served in the state parliament.

The wave of change that blasted Newman into power has receded. Again, he has two opponents, Kate Jones and Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk, plus now, a record as Premier to protect and a government to lead to victory. Recent polling has Newman trailing Jones by enough to see the seat turn red again, which would see the Premier unseated and out of parliament. While you can lead a party without being a sitting MP, you cannot be Premier. So who would lead Queensland?

It’s a question that the LNP seem unable or unwilling to answer. When pressed this morning by 4BC’s Pat Condren, Treasurer Tim Nicholls denied that the scenario where Newman loses Ashgrove but the LNP retains government is possible.

Mathematically, it’s not impossible, and a Treasurer making ridiculous claims mathematical assumptions is becoming too common in Australia. That's another story.

In fact, it’s a statistical probability based on recent polling that the statewide swing away from the LNP will fall somewhere between the 5.7% buffer that Newman holds in Ashgrove, and the 11.5% swing needed to remove the LNP from power. The ABC’s Election Analyst Antony Green will remind us more than a few times between now and the election that swings are never uniform. Still, for the sake of argument, the 5.8% difference between the Ashgrove margin and the required statewide swing is the very scenario where Labor take Ashgrove yet remains in opposition.

When pushed further by Mr Condren this morning on whether he was contemplating a future as the next Premier of Queensland, Treasurer Tim Nicholls assured us that “We (the LNP) have a plan.”

It’s a plan they’re not willing to share with voters, and probably won’t until they need to implement their secret plan.

It’s a simple equation. Either Newman wins Ashgrove, or he doesn’t. If he doesn’t, he could conceivably ask a sitting LNP member to resign, forcing a by-election. Assuming he wins the by-election, he could then challenge for the leadership of the LNP and regain the position of Premier of Queensland.

There are plenty of questions remaining though: if Newman does lose in Ashgrove, and decides to tap another LNP member on the shoulder, who would it be? Whose is dispensible, but with a seat that is safely in the LNP’s hands? The worst possible outcome for the LNP would be if Newman did force a by-election, and then lost it.

The LNP must have a plan, and probably more than one, for various possible scenarios should Newman lose Ashgrove. If they are planning to force a by-election, who will act as LNP Leader and official state Premier in the lead-up to the by-election? What would happen if the interim leader (who would need to be officially sworn in and form government) takes a liking to the title, or a dislike to Campbell Newman, and has the numbers to win a spill against Newman?

This is sticky territory for the LNP, particularly given the leadership history of some of the current LNP front bench.

Does the uncertainty around LNP leadership make undecided voters more or less likely to gamble with another term of LNP government? Would knowing what the LNP’s secret plan is make Ashgrove voters more or less likely to vote for Newman?

And if, for whatever reason, Campbell Newman is not the Premier of Queensland after January 31, who are the frontrunners?

Stay tuned – we’ll look at the likely ladies and lads of the LNP next.