Newmania: Knowns

Every election is, essentially, a battle between a known and an unknown. Without strangling Donald Rumsfeld’s quote too far, an election is a contest between a sitting government – the known - and the opposition – the unknown. 

Why is the opposition an unknown? Because their primary function as an opposition is to challenge the decisions of the government. Every government, every opposition is different, and basing a voting decision on the record of an opposition will always be risky, as oppositions don’t govern.

And yet that is what we are required to do at every election.

The question we ask ourselves is always, what do we know?  

Knowns

With the January 31 election falling just six weeks short of a complete three year parliamentary term, we have learned much about how the Newman government operates. We know, for example, that the LNP Government is very good at generating and publicising their plans, which are displayed for all to see on the government’s website. The first was a reworking of their campaign promises, complete with criticism of the previous government and vague promises across a range of departments. 

The LNP’s four pillars-approach will build a more productive and resilient economy to serve the Queensland people, providing social and business infrastructure, and the services to meet the challenges of a globalised economy.

There’s twenty pages of that, by the way.

Unknowns

The same government that releases such positive, hopeful plans each six months is much less willing to update the electorate on the progress of those plans. Short of keeping a list and checking off the items as they are announced – and a regular and careful reading of Hansard to keep up with the legislation – we simply don’t know whether the government is achieving its, or if they’re in progress or whether they’ve been abandoned entirely.

Source: DestinationQ

For example, of the government’s pillars of its much hyped Four Pillar Economy is Tourism. How much do we know about what has been achieved to grow the tourism industry in the almost three years of LNP Government? After a thorough reading of the Queensland Tourism data and statistics, it’s still a mystery, except for some figures around expenditure of visitors versus the government's 20 year plan.

The same can be said for Construction, another pillar of the Four Pillar Economy. The BIS Shrapnel report is interesting reading, but doesn’t answer the question of whether the Queensland’s construction sector has grown in the past three years. Instead, there’s this nugget of information: 

Source: BIS Shrapnel

The outlook for major project work is now much weaker than the previous Report. In the near term, this is due to both weaker levels of funded and unfunded work (with now almost all unfunded work in 2013/14 not expected to proceed). Later on, a much sharper decline is expected as projects previously included (but unfunded) are no longer included in the major projects list.

The remaining two pillars – Agriculture and Resources - of the Four Pillar Economy are just as confusing. The voters have to assume these areas are either not growing as the government had planned, or that they are no longer priorities, despite the $9.5b in state subsidies to the mining industry alone. 

Known – but not really

In 2012, LNP Government promised to lower unemployment from 5.5% to 4% over six years. Halfway through the six year period, unemployment has risen to 6.9% in Queensland. The government is on high spin: they like to quote the 1,100 jobs they’ve created per month, yet fail to mention that those jobs can include part time work offering as little as ten hours per week. Another unmentionable is the 741 full time jobs per month that have disappeared. What is known is that the unemployment rate in Queensland is higher now than it was three years ago. 

The state’s crime rate is another grey area that will swing votes, with the government claiming that crime has decreased. Unfortunately, there’s conflicting information that shows that the government has shared only part of the truth. 

Source: ABC News

Known Failures

There are some truths, however, that are universally acknowledged. Among a raft of other promises, Queenslanders were told that a Newman/LNP Government would deliver cheaper cost of living through such measures as lower electricity prices and a freeze on car registration costs. Despite the federal government repealing the much maligned Carbon Tax, the cost of electricity has risen by an average of $560 per year during the term of the Newman government. The government portion of registration costs were frozen from July 2012 for three years, but other components increased, wiping out any savings.

Unknown Quantities

Yes. Queenslanders were warned that there would be some pain…and then the job cuts started, including over 24,000 public service jobs. Despite the pledge to “Revitalise Front Line Services”, these too were cut, with nurses, paramedics, teachers’ aides, and contact centre personnel losing their jobs.

Meanwhile, the Premier has announced today a $90m programme to create 209,000 new Queensland jobs between now and 2021. 

"With new technology comes new opportunities, and the LNP will ensure young Queenslanders get the quality training that leads to a quality career.

"While we're making progress, we know there's more to do and our Jobs of Tomorrow plan will provide 26,000 new job and training opportunities for young Queenslanders."

Sounds good, although highly youth-focussed in a state with a high proportion of older people. On the other hand, Amy Remeikis in the Brisbane Times explains that many of the jobs will be based on the construction industry, which according to the BIS Shrapnel report, is not looking so great. In any case, the 4% promise from three years ago seems to be firmly in the past. 

Surprise Package

Queenslanders have been treated to almost three years of other surprises, many of them unwelcome and most of them cuts to services, agencies and programmes. Everything from a centre for LGBTI community to Breastscreen (changes which later morphed into a 'restructure') to the Premier’s Literary Prize to trials of solar and thermal energy production to the iconic Sunlander train and even indigenous student support programmes have been downsized or cut altogether. The actual number of funding cuts (as opposed to job cuts) is another statistic which is not readily available, but numbers well into the hundreds and effect every department.

Impossible Unknowns

It’s not possible to catalogue in one blog post all of the things we’ve learned about the Newman Government in the past three years. To summarise, I’d describe it as fuzzy. Some facts are available, if you’re willing to search for them and have the expertise to extract the important and relevant items from the swamp of numbers. If you’re waiting on the Newman government itself to provide a genuine performance analysis based on promises made, don’t forget to breathe.

In the meantime, remember that Campbell Newman has invited Queensland voters to look at his record….what we can see of it. It’s clear that the Newman government is not keen to share the results of any in-house performance reviews, so we’re left with the LNP spin team can release, and other, random factoids that escape from the fortress.

The question is still, as always, what do we know?

The answer is not nearly enough.